California job losses are beginning to slow, although employment growth is still months off, according to a report released by Chapman University today.

The school's California Employment Indicator Index ticked up to 72.8  in the fourth quarter, from 69.5 in the previous three months.  It was the first increase in the index after seven quarters of decline.  The index, however, remains well below 100, which means further job losses ahead. (Click on image to enlarge.)

Source: Chapman University Anderson Center for Economic Research

Economist Esmael Adibi, who oversees the index, said the the results are consistent with today's October U.S. unemployment report, which showed the jobless rate jumping to 10.2% with employers cutting 190,000 jobs.

Although the unemployment rate increased, it was the second month in a row that year-over-year job losses were under 200,000.  That compares to the early months of this year, when U.S. employers were slashing 600,00 to 700,000 jobs a month.

"People were disappointed in the increase from 9.8% to 10.2%, but the trend (of job losses) at least is moving in the right direction," said Adibi.  "I see job creation at the national level happening in the next few month but for us, looking at this indicator, it may not show up for a couple of quarters."

Chapman's index looks at real GDP, real exports, the S&P 500 and the state’s total construction spending to predict what may be happen with statewide employment.  The index generally has been a good predictor of the job market, although Adibi says its predictive value may be limited in this recession because of how quickly the economy declined and the severity of of the layoffs.

Read the full Chapman report HERE.

Did you miss these stories on jobs and the economy ...

President Barack Obama today signed a bill the will extend unemployment for the thousands of workers who have already exhausted their benefits or will soon.

The bill provides up to 14 weeks of additional benefits to all states and up to 20 weeks in high unemployment states like California.  However, because an earlier bill included a sunset provision at the end of this year, California officials say Californians likely will only be able to get an additional 14 weeks of benefits.

"The need for such a measure was made clear by the jobs report that we received this morning," said Obama, citing the October U.S. jobs report which showed unemployment jumping to 10.2%.

The bill is expected to help up to 2 million Americans who have exhausted their benefits or will fall off the unemployment rolls by year's end.  As many as 170,000 are affected in California.

Although the bill has been signed into law, state Employment Development Department officials say it will take "several weeks" before they can reprogram the computers and start issuing checks.

The bill, which got hung up for a month in the Senate as Democrats and Republicans bickered over amendments, also extends and expands the $8,000 first time homebuyers tax credit and a allows businesses to take advantage of a provision to deduct their operating losses.

Read the Associated Press story on the bill HERE.

Did you miss these stories on jobs and the economy ...

U.S. unemployment hit 10.2% in October, the highest since April 1983 as employers cut 190,000 jobs, the US. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

If you include people who have settled for part-time work and those who want to work but are not looking now, the unemployment rate was 17.5%. (Click on chart to enlarge.)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The country has now lost employment 22 months in a row, a total of 7.3 million jobs.

In terms of sectors, construction was hardest hit, down 62,000 jobs in October. Manufacturing declined by 61,000 and retail employment fell by 40,000.

One hopeful sign was temporary employment, which rose by 34,000, the biggest increase since the recession officially started in December 2007.  If employers see demand in business grow but are unsure whether it will be sustained, they often will turn to temps rather than bring people on full time.

Healthcare hiring was also up, adding 29,000 jobs.

State and local unemployment numbers for October won't be released until Nov. 20. In September, California's unemployment rate was 12.2% and Orange County was at9.4%.

Read the the full BLS report HERE and the Associated Press analysis HERE.

Did you miss these stories on jobs and the economy ...

(Update 12:43 p.m.: Gather.com reports the House passed the unemployment extension this afternoon on a 403-12 vote.   President Barack Obama is set to sign it on Friday, Nov. 6.)

Few, if any, unemployed people will be able to get the full 20-week extension in jobless benefits because Congress delayed so long and failed to change a sunset provision, says a California Employment Development Department official.

As a result, most Californians — an estimated 285,000 long-term unemployed — will be able to qualify for only an additional 14 weeks of benefits, says Loree Levy, an EDD spokeswoman.

The legislation, which was approved by the House today, provides 14 weeks of additional benefits to all states. Those states with a jobless rate over 8.5% — California's is 12.2% — get up to 20 more weeks.

But instead of simply tacking on the additional weeks in one new extension, the bill sets up a Byzantine plan that adds two new extensions to the two previous ones before the last extension, referred to as FedEd, kicks in.

Congress previously extended FedEd from 13 weeks to 20 weeks, but included a sunset provision for the end of the year. If Congress doesn't change that provision, FedEd will revert to 13 weeks on Jan. 1.

So even if a person could start collecting on the latest extension today, the calendar will run out before that person can get all 20 weeks of benefits. As currently written, they will get one additional week for the second extension and, because their unemployment will carry into next year, 13 weeks of FedEd, for a maximum of 14 weeks.

"A lot of false expectations may be created at the end of the year," Levy says.

Here's how the new law divvies up unemployment extensions and the order in which they are paid, according to Levy:

• Basic unemployment: 26 weeks
• First extension: 20 weeks
• Second extension: now 14 weeks (the new bill added a week)
• Third extension (new): 13 weeks
• Fourth extension (new): 6 weeks
• FedEd: 20 weeks now (13 weeks after Jan. 1)

The changes make for a reprogramming nightmare for EDD's computer system. In addition, so many people have exhausted their benefits — an estimated 66,000 in September alone — that EDD is going to have to recalculate thousands of claims to determine eligibility.

Levy says EDD will contact everyone who may be eligible for the latest extension, however, it will be "several weeks" before any checks will go out.

Did you miss these stories on jobs and the economy ...

The U.S. Senate broke a month-long deadlock today and approved a bill that could extend unemployment benefits up to 20 weeks.

It had appeared that the Senate vote would have to wait until Thursday after Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., cast the lone "no" opposing putting an immediate end to debate.

However early this evening Washington time, the Senate won a unanimous 98-0 vote for the bill.  It will now return to the House, which approved a different version of the bill Sept. 22.  The House is expected to quickly approve it Thursday and send it on to the President, who has said he will sign it.

Under the bill, all states will get up to 14 weeks of additional unemployment benefits. States with unemployment over 8.5% will get up to 20 more weeks.  California officials estimate 285,000 people -- many of whom have exhausted their benefits -- will be eligible for the extension.

Did you miss these stories on jobs and the economy ...

(See update:  Senate passes unemployment extension.)

Final Senate action on a bill to extend unemployment benefits up to 20 more weeks appears headed for a vote on Thursday, Nov. 5.

The Senate voted 97-1 today on cloture, a parliamentary procedure which sets a deadline on debate.  Because Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., voted against it, the Senate will have to wait out the clock for 30 hours before they can vote. The earliest a final vote can take place is Thursday.

If approved, the Senate bill would grant 14 additional weeks of unemployment benefits to all states.  Those with more than 8.5% unemployment — California's is 12.2% — will get up to 20 additional weeks. That means the long-term unemployed in California will be eligible for up to 99 weeks of benefits.

The House approved a bill Sept. 22 that would have granted 13 additional weeks of benefits for states with unemployment over 8.5%.  Because the Senate bill is different, it will have to go back to the House, which is expected to quickly approve it.

Fast action had been expected on the bill after the original House vote, but it got caught up in a fight between the Democrats and Republicans over where the $2.4 billion would come from to pay for the benefits and what amendments, if any, would be allowed.  Most of the proposed amendments had nothing to do with unemployment.

A compromise was reached to allow two amendments — one extending the $8,000 first-time homebuyers tax credit to April and the other an extension of a business tax credit.

Employers would still be stuck paying the tab through an extension of a $14-per-employee federal surtax that was supposed to expire at the end of this year.

But some Republicans stalled, miffed that they weren't being allowed to introduce other amendments ranging from expansion of the online program for employers to verify job applicants' legal eligibility to work to defunding ACORN, a non-profit community organization accused of misusing government funds.

California Employment Development Department officials estimate 285,000 workers statewide could be eligible for additional extension benefits if the bill is approved this week.

Did you miss these stories on jobs and the economy ...

(Updated with comments from Kenny Williams, president of CWA Local 9510.)

AT&T will cut 85 jobs in Orange by Dec. 2, according to a notice filed with the state, and also will eliminate an undisclosed number of jobs in Anaheim, a company official confirmed today.

The Orange jobs are in AT&T's customer information services operation.  The cuts were included in a Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) notice filed with the state, which is required whenever an employer lays off 50 or more people in California.

Word was that 500 other workers would be laid off in Anaheim, but Marty Richter, an AT&T spokesman, said that number "is very inaccurate."  He declined to give the actual number, saying the company doesn't release those details. He also would not disclose when the layoffs would take place.

The jobs affected are in the company's wireline (land line) business, which has been declining.

"We're consistently working to match our workforce to our customer load and the needs of the business.  Parts of our business are growing -- such as wireless, broadband and video -- and part of our business are declining -- most notably, wireline," said Richter. "In those parts of the business that are growing we are adding jobs; at the same time, we are shedding some jobs in the parts of our business that are declining."

He said the layoffs were part of an effort to consolidate centers.

Kenny Williams, president Communications Workers of America 9510 in Orange, said there have been no layoffs among the people he represents yet.  The company, however, has offered voluntary early retirements and buyouts to workers who want to take them.

The union is concerned that if enough workers don't leave voluntarily, that the company will declare a surplus which could lead to layoffs. He said 200 to 300 customer service reps potentially are affected.

"The company has made no bones about it that they want to consolidate call centers outside the state," Williams said. "We are going to fight that with everything we have."

Did you miss these stories on jobs and the economy ...

Sick workers would be guaranteed up to five paid days off if their boss tells them to stay home because they might be contagious, according to an emergency bill introduced today by two Bay Area Democratic House members.

The bill, by Reps. George Miller of Martinez, and Lynn Woolsey, who represents Marin County and part of Sonoma, is aimed at the estimated 50 million, often lower-paid workers who don't have paid sick leave who may get swine flu.

“Sick workers advised to stay home by their employers shouldn’t have to choose between their livelihood, and their coworkers’ or customer’s health,” said Miller, chairman of the House Education and Labor Committee. “This will not only protect employees, but it will save employers money by ensuring that sick employees don’t spread infection to co-workers and customers, and will relieve the financial burden on our health system swamped by those suffering from H1N1.”

Woolsey,  chairmwoman of the Workforce Protections Subcommittee, said the bill would help control the spread of the H1N1 flu virus.

The legislators cited estimates by the Centers for Disease Control that says one sick worker can infect up to 10 colleagues.

Provisions of the so-called Emergency Influenza Containment Act:

• Guarantees a sick worker up to five paid sick leave days a year if an employer ‘directs’ or ‘advises’ a sick employee to stay home or go home.
• Covers both full-time and part-time workers (on a pro-rated basis) in businesses with 15 or more workers. Employers that already provide at least 5 days’ paid sick leave are exempt.
• An employer can end paid sick leave at any time by informing the employee that the employer believes they’re well enough to return to work. Employees may continue on unpaid leave under the Family Medical Leave Act or other existing sick leave policies.
• Employees who follow their employer’s direction to stay home because of contagious illness cannot be fired, disciplined or made subject to retaliation for following directions.
• Takes effect 15 days after being signed into law and sunsets after two years.

The bill will be heard by the House Education and Labor Committee Nov. 16.

Did you miss these stories on jobs and the economy ...

California's unemployment insurance trust fund is bleeding money with state officials estimating it will be $27.3 billion in the hole by the end of 2011, according to a new state forecast.

Officials already were projecting major deficits in the fund a year ago, before the full impact of the banking crisis hit in late 2008.  The fund's losses accelerated this year as the country plunged into its deepest recession in 70 years with California's unemployment rate hitting a modern-day high of 12.3% in August.

Employers, who support the fund through a tax on each worker, are expected to contribute $4.3 billion  this year but that is nowhere near the $12.5 billion that is projected to be paid out in benefits. After eking out a $326.2 million surplus in 2008, the trust fund is expected to be $7.4 billion in the red by the end of this year. (Click on chart below to enlarge.)

Source: California Employment Development Department

Just two years ago, at the end of 2007, the fund had a $2.7 billion surplus.  As the recession worsened last year, the state projected a $2.4 billion deficit by the end of this year. The state, however, never anticipated the massive layoffs that took place late last year and in early 2009. That resulted in the deficit soaring $5 billion more than expected.

Officials project that the situation will worsen next year as more than 2.3 Californians are expected to be collecting unemployment, up from 2.2 million this year. Although the unemployment picture is expected to ease slightly in 2011 to 2.1 million, the cumulative costs to the trust fund will skyrocket to an estimated $27.3 billion deficit.

And things could be worse.   The stimulus package approved by Congress in February provides $8 billion for extended unemployment benefits this year and $1.1 billion in 2010.  In addition, the federal government is forgiving the interest on the funds the state is borrowing this year and next year to pay unemployment benefits. But in January 2011, the interest clock will begin running again and the state will have to pay back the borrowed federal funds in full by that September.

State officials have warned for years that the unemployment insurance trust fund is way out of whack.  Benefit payments have increased over the last 20 years with no adjustment in eligibility rules or the employer tax that goes to support the trust fund.

Read the full state unemployment insurance trust fund report HERE.

Did you miss these stories on jobs and the economy ...